Preparedness for future food shortages: Economic & other factors

These two sets of economic factors are true of any resource shortages, as we’re seeing in the energy supply sector as well as with food supplies:

• A shortage of any resource can be met by ramping up production (if possible) and/or holding reserve stocks.
  Both depend on changing the economic structure of the market.
• In a commercial system, when demand exceeds supply, prices will rise.
  • Only those who can afford rising prices can participate in the market.
  • The means to mitigate high prices include raising household incomes, subsidies, other fiscal measures and setting parameters to encourage economies of scale, all of which require policy change at a government level.

These two general points are made more challenging regarding food compared to say, energy supplies because

1. We all need food every day
2. Nutrient-dense foods are more expensive than low-nutrient ones
3. When it comes to reserve stocks, many nutrient-dense fresh produce is highly perishable at ambient temperatures
4. Just-In-Time (JIT) commercial systems mean retail food reserves are typically 4-7 days-worth.

note: Our scenarios work on buffer stock systems indicates these challenges can be met.

____

But meeting these challenges means the socio-political landscape must change with regard to three sets of socio-political factors:

• • A recognition that the UK needs preparedness plans abdoiut what to do on the ground.
    • Currently, there no plans, nor any prospect of them, while increasing numbers of households are experiencing shortages; see my previous post.
    • Indeed, the Government’s pursuit of this Brexit is adding to food supply problems; see this post.
  • A change in the traditional but misguided view that hunger is only or mainly about calorie deprivation is widespread. Millions of UK citizens are already experiencing a nutrient famine.
    • Nutrient deprivation is pernicious, as the effects are not immediate. This means it’s easy for policy makers and politicians to ignore what’s happening. By default, the UK has a let them eat (cheap) cake policy. 
  • Decision-makers need a far better grasp of the range and diversity of players in the food supply system; see the video below, or here.

• • Shortages are often seen only as primary production issues by researchers as well as socio-political decision-makers.
  • Significant disruptions can and do happen well beyond the farm gate, as we should have learned from, for example, the CO2 shortages, and what we’re witnessing with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    • Geopolitical instabilities, as well as climate change, resource depletion, population pressures, will increasing affect food supplies into the UK. Socio-political decision makers need to take heed of warnings, such as the 2017 report by Chatham House: Choke-points and Vulnerabilities in Global Food Trade, summarised in this map:

Dover and the Black Sea ports today, where tomorrow?

See also our pre-Covid-19  2019 report on Global Risks to UK food supplies, the last three pages of which are about geopolitical change: p13 (about these chokepoints), page 14 (an arctic shipping route) and page 15 (about the Belt and Road Initiative).